mys·ter·y1 Pronunciation Key (mst-r)

One whose identity is unknown and who arouses curiosity.

 

 

 

 
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« Grain game | Main | What happens when we run out of ammo? »

How high is up?

Another one bites the dust – another record high, that is. It’s become almost a daily occurrence. The $100 record for a barrel of crude oil – and lots of bets on $200 crude – and the move in gold above $900 an ounce have been well publicized.

Now, in the aftermath of the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports Friday, corn and the soybean complex are getting in on the act, following the path of wheat, which set its record above $10 a bushel in December.

How many chances have farmers ever had to sell corn futures above $5 a bushel? I can only recall one other time in 1996. And they have never had another opportunity to sell soybean futures above $13 as they have the last few days. Finally, beans in the teens, long after that that chant began when prices hit the previous record of $12.90 a bushel briefly in June 1973 when most farmers had no soybeans left to sell at the time.

But are the highs in after Monday’s price action? Is it time to go short these markets? History suggests yes, jump on this opportunity. So do the daily candlestick charts for 2008 soybean futures, where Friday’s action looks like a big shooting star, a bearish formation.

But are we in a monumental turning period in history where old price levels no longer apply, just as happened in the 1970s? This does appear to be a new demand era, with corn for ethanol acting as the catalyst and creating another major battle for acres for the 2008 crop. This battle is far from resolved and appears capable of continuing to keep the drive going for 2008-crop futures.

In short, it won’t be easy to go short in a falling-knife situation, but a drop below $12.50 in March soybean futures would create a tempting VantagePoint medium-term downside crossover.

Soybeans.jpg

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About Me:

Almost nothing is known about the Mystery Trader. If there were anything much known, he or she would not be such a mystery, would he or she?

We can say only this: the Mystery Trader has been trading for a long time, has learned a few things, mostly the hard way, has traded all kinds of crazy financial instruments, has made AND LOST an awful lot of money, and has not died broke well, not YET anyhow, but there is still time for that.

The Mystery Trader writes these impressions and thoughts as a kind of an uncensored stream of consciousness journal or diary, largely for his or her own amusement, but also hoping these thoughts might help readers somehow, perhaps occasionally, prevent them from doing something stupid.

The Mystery Trader hopes that his or her thoughts might help YOU keep from losing YOUR shirt in the world's biggest casino. The financial markets are notoriously tricky and have ALWAYS been loaded with disinformation, deception, raw deals, chicanery, and outright criminal theft. Unfortunately, little of this bad behavior is caught and punished because the financial markets are too big and chaotic.

The Mystery Trader certainly and explicitly does NOT recommend that you blindly accept any ideas presented here or take anything expressed here at face value as actual fact. On the contrary, if anything, the Mystery Trader hopes that this blog might encourage you to think entirely for yourself and develop your own UNcommon sense. Be careful, have fun, and good luck!

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