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« A good move by the Fed? | Main | Disturbing trends »

Confidence game

Now that the dust has settled a bit from the Fed’s 50 basis point increases in the Fed funds and discount rates last Tuesday, how did things shake out during the week in the aftermath of the Fed’s surprisingly aggressive action:

• Stock indexes posted a sharp rally, with the S&P 500 making a run at the July highs.
• The U.S. dollar weakened to new lows, with the U.S. Dollar Index barely staying above its all-time 78.19 low.
• Foreign currencies moved up sharply against the U.S. dollar almost all across the board with the Canadian dollar at 30-year highs and even reaching parity with the U.S. dollar.
• Gold prices rose to the highest level in 27 years.
• Crude oil prices hit new record highs.
• Soybean futures reached $10 a bushel and corn prices rallied.

A lot of the higher currency and commodity prices has been attributed to the sinking U.S. dollar and perceptions that it can only get worse. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson proclaims that a strong U.S. dollar is in the best interest of the country but adds that “values should be set in a competitive marketplace based on underlying economic fundamentals.”

Doesn’t sound very hopeful for the dollar considering how the effects of the housing slump and credit debacle are weighing on U.S. economic growth. Nearly everyone seems to be painting a scenario of a weaker dollar equaling even higher commodity prices and higher inflation, but the big risk is a potential dollar-selling panic if its value drops much further. Even now there must be big money wondering why they should keep their funds in a dollar that’s losing value. Running the brinksmanship of panic is a little scarey.

One positive: Most people are thinking one way, and you know the market adage about having too many people on one side.

As for the stock market, remember then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s New Year’s surprise in 2001? The Dow had slumped 15% from its peak, people were beginning to worry about a recession, and the Fed had held rates steady at 6.5% when the Fed decided the economy needed a little boost and chopped the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points.

Like last week, that cut was good for an initial shot in the arm for the stock market. Greenspan’s Fed continued to lower rates all the way to 1%, but, ominously, that didn’t keep the R word away. And you probably don’t need a reminder about what happened to the stock market in the two years after Greenspan started his interest rate decline.

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About Me:

Almost nothing is known about the Mystery Trader. If there were anything much known, he or she would not be such a mystery, would he or she?

We can say only this: the Mystery Trader has been trading for a long time, has learned a few things, mostly the hard way, has traded all kinds of crazy financial instruments, has made AND LOST an awful lot of money, and has not died broke well, not YET anyhow, but there is still time for that.

The Mystery Trader writes these impressions and thoughts as a kind of an uncensored stream of consciousness journal or diary, largely for his or her own amusement, but also hoping these thoughts might help readers somehow, perhaps occasionally, prevent them from doing something stupid.

The Mystery Trader hopes that his or her thoughts might help YOU keep from losing YOUR shirt in the world's biggest casino. The financial markets are notoriously tricky and have ALWAYS been loaded with disinformation, deception, raw deals, chicanery, and outright criminal theft. Unfortunately, little of this bad behavior is caught and punished because the financial markets are too big and chaotic.

The Mystery Trader certainly and explicitly does NOT recommend that you blindly accept any ideas presented here or take anything expressed here at face value as actual fact. On the contrary, if anything, the Mystery Trader hopes that this blog might encourage you to think entirely for yourself and develop your own UNcommon sense. Be careful, have fun, and good luck!

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