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Upside Bias Is Relentless—For the Moment
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
The market is not very exciting, but it is steady, making small gains most days. After a few months, small gains add up.
Very low volatility hardly merits aggressive short-term trading. When volatility returns, and it must return eventually, it may return with shocking quickness and magnitude. So don’t immitate Rip Van Winkle. Stay awake.
Sure the market is over bought, but at this time I don’t see any catalyst to stop the slow upside grind.
When the catalyst hits, it may not be obvious. Overly leveraged, overly concentrated, overly secretive hedge funds are like giant icebergs of risk, with most of the danger hidden invisibly under the surface.
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