MysteryTraderBlog.com: Pricing in uncertainty?

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One whose identity is unknown and who arouses curiosity.

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Pricing in uncertainty?

Q2 GDP growth came in at 2.6%, down from the consensus expectation of 2.9%.
The growth of the economy has turned down.

The market thinks a moderating pace of growth is good—but is it? That depends on how far the downturn goes. And at this point, I don’t think anybody knows.

I think the market OUGHT TO price in this uncertainty. Stocks look overbought to me, and an October surprise to the downside would come as no surprise at all to me.

Posted by MysteryTrader on September 28, 2006 03:16 PM | Permalink

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About Me:

Almost nothing is known about the Mystery Trader. If there were anything much known, he or she would not be such a mystery, would he or she?

We can say only this: the Mystery Trader has been trading for a long time, has learned a few things, mostly the hard way, has traded all kinds of crazy financial instruments, has made AND LOST an awful lot of money, and has not died broke well, not YET anyhow, but there is still time for that.

The Mystery Trader writes these impressions and thoughts as a kind of an uncensored stream of consciousness journal or diary, largely for his or her own amusement, but also hoping these thoughts might help readers somehow, perhaps occasionally, prevent them from doing something stupid.

The Mystery Trader hopes that his or her thoughts might help YOU keep from losing YOUR shirt in the world's biggest casino. The financial markets are notoriously tricky and have ALWAYS been loaded with disinformation, deception, raw deals, chicanery, and outright criminal theft. Unfortunately, little of this bad behavior is caught and punished because the financial markets are too big and chaotic.

The Mystery Trader certainly and explicitly does NOT recommend that you blindly accept any ideas presented here or take anything expressed here at face value as actual fact. On the contrary, if anything, the Mystery Trader hopes that this blog might encourage you to think entirely for yourself and develop your own UNcommon sense. Be careful, have fun, and good luck!

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