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One whose identity is unknown and who arouses curiosity.

 

 

 

 
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« maximum flexibility | Main | Shock and Awe, Smoke and Mirrors »

Fed’s Beige Book Won’t Really Help

U.S. stocks turned upward Wednesday afternoon after news of the latest Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey of economic conditions around the country. A number of regions reported a decline in the overall rate of growth in their economies, which might be good news, other things being equal. But other things are not equal.

Rising energy costs are adding to inflationary pressures, and it could get worse before it gets better. War in the Middle East creates the possibility of much higher energy costs. And heat waves don’t help.

I don’t think this 3-day rally can last, so I am shorting it.

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Comments

Hi Myst,
I really support ur view and I want short Dow at 11240.But I think to keep inflation at bay FED may again compromise with US growth and which in turn will help US Dollar in big way which will terun gold and other base metal in bear grip.Even I want to short Euro against Dollar also with stop above 1.2840.I really want to know ur view.

So you want short Dow at 11,240? But the DJIA is now hovering around 11,100 and it has not closed above 11,228 since 6/2/06. What makes you think it can go as high as 11,240? I am skeptical.
OK, so maybe the Fed has to compromise: inflation versus growth. But it does not follow that the Fed’s dilemma can in any way help U.S. dollar. It may seem logical that rising interest rates make the dollar more attractive to foreigners, but that does not always work, and it is not working now. Interest rates can rise and the dollar can decline at the same time, as witnessed in 1973, 1978, 1994, 2004, and 2006.
The dollar looks weak to me, technically. I would not short Euro against U.S. dollar.

Slow growth is welcome because it dampens inflationary expectation but at what cost..such opinion from mainstream media baffles me. Inflation is a clear and present danger, getting manifested through unbridled growth in money supply, pockets of irrational asset price esclation and mispricing of risk. Central bank [the Fed] is quite aware of this and would do little to stop hiking rates before a marked slowdown in the above euphoria is evident.

"mispricing of risk"
Right. That is quite evident to me.

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About Me:

Almost nothing is known about the Mystery Trader. If there were anything much known, he or she would not be such a mystery, would he or she?

We can say only this: the Mystery Trader has been trading for a long time, has learned a few things, mostly the hard way, has traded all kinds of crazy financial instruments, has made AND LOST an awful lot of money, and has not died broke well, not YET anyhow, but there is still time for that.

The Mystery Trader writes these impressions and thoughts as a kind of an uncensored stream of consciousness journal or diary, largely for his or her own amusement, but also hoping these thoughts might help readers somehow, perhaps occasionally, prevent them from doing something stupid.

The Mystery Trader hopes that his or her thoughts might help YOU keep from losing YOUR shirt in the world's biggest casino. The financial markets are notoriously tricky and have ALWAYS been loaded with disinformation, deception, raw deals, chicanery, and outright criminal theft. Unfortunately, little of this bad behavior is caught and punished because the financial markets are too big and chaotic.

The Mystery Trader certainly and explicitly does NOT recommend that you blindly accept any ideas presented here or take anything expressed here at face value as actual fact. On the contrary, if anything, the Mystery Trader hopes that this blog might encourage you to think entirely for yourself and develop your own UNcommon sense. Be careful, have fun, and good luck!

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