Fed’s Beige Book Won’t Really Help
U.S. stocks turned upward Wednesday afternoon after news of the latest Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey of economic conditions around the country. A number of regions reported a decline in the overall rate of growth in their economies, which might be good news, other things being equal. But other things are not equal.
Rising energy costs are adding to inflationary pressures, and it could get worse before it gets better. War in the Middle East creates the possibility of much higher energy costs. And heat waves don’t help.
I don’t think this 3-day rally can last, so I am shorting it.







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Hi Myst,
I really support ur view and I want short Dow at 11240.But I think to keep inflation at bay FED may again compromise with US growth and which in turn will help US Dollar in big way which will terun gold and other base metal in bear grip.Even I want to short Euro against Dollar also with stop above 1.2840.I really want to know ur view.
So you want short Dow at 11,240? But the DJIA is now hovering around 11,100 and it has not closed above 11,228 since 6/2/06. What makes you think it can go as high as 11,240? I am skeptical.
OK, so maybe the Fed has to compromise: inflation versus growth. But it does not follow that the Fed’s dilemma can in any way help U.S. dollar. It may seem logical that rising interest rates make the dollar more attractive to foreigners, but that does not always work, and it is not working now. Interest rates can rise and the dollar can decline at the same time, as witnessed in 1973, 1978, 1994, 2004, and 2006.
The dollar looks weak to me, technically. I would not short Euro against U.S. dollar.
Posted by: Raj | July 26, 2006 11:47 PM
Slow growth is welcome because it dampens inflationary expectation but at what cost..such opinion from mainstream media baffles me. Inflation is a clear and present danger, getting manifested through unbridled growth in money supply, pockets of irrational asset price esclation and mispricing of risk. Central bank [the Fed] is quite aware of this and would do little to stop hiking rates before a marked slowdown in the above euphoria is evident.
"mispricing of risk"
Right. That is quite evident to me.
Posted by: Anindya Banerjee | July 27, 2006 06:25 AM